What are the three global shifts you believe will have the biggest impact on the business landscape in the 21st century?
A permanent fixture of our core curriculum is our take on business ethics. We call the session: Behaviour Before Brand. It offers a platform for participants to share, listen and explore (rather than be told) how to think about the essence of ethical leadership.
The three global shifts that will have the biggest impact on the business landscape in the 21st century are...
- demographics,
- demographics and
- demographics!
There are of course other fundamental shifts, including geopolitical, environmental and digital, but the thread that is intimately linked to all of them are the radical unprecedented demographic transformations. These include, but are not limited to, the global geographical distribution of population basically between a rapidly ageing north and a population-booming south.
To cite only two examples: in 1950 Africa accounted for less than 9% of world population, by 2050 it will be 20%; the corresponding figures for Europe are 22% and 7%. This has immense implications in every respect. Thus, while another major shift is digitalisation and robotisation, the implications for demographics, in particular the creation of employment, are enormous.
Urbanisation: in 1950, approximately 20% of the world population was urban and 80% rural. Since 2005, the global urban population has surpassed the global rural population. By 2050, it should be about 75% urban.
Along with these developments, there has been the stupendous rise of a newly emerging middle-income group, especially, but not exclusively in Asia. Twenty years ago the number of overseas Chinese tourists were very few and very far between. Last year they were 150 million! Chinese tourists are the biggest spenders in France – as well as being by quite far the biggest market for Bordeaux wines and cognac!
The indicators above are few among many, many demographic shifts. As noted in the rich countries (including Hong Kong), ageing is the most pronounced feature: since the beginning of this century sales of incontinent towels in Japan surpass, by more and more every year, the sales of nappies. Needless to say, there are also huge resource (especially food and water) implications arising from demographic shifts.